- Marubuci, Soutik Biswas
- Sanya sunan wanda ya rubuta labari, India Correspondent
Asalin hoton, Getty Images
Majalisar Ɗinkin Duniya (MDD) ta yi hasashen cewa Indiya za ta zarta China a matsayin ƙasar da ta fi yawan al’umma a duniya a tsakiyar watan Afrilu
Nan da tsakiyar watan Afrilu, an yi hasashen Indiya za ta zarta China a matsayin ƙasar da ta fi yawan al’umma a duniya.
Ƙasashen da ke nahiyar Asiya, tuni suke da yawan mutum fiye da biliyan 1.4, kuma a tsawon shekara 70 su ne ke da kashi ɗaya cikin uku na al’ummar duniya.
Ana sa ran nana da shekara sabuwar shekara al’ummar China za ta fara raguwa. A shekarar da ta gabata, an haifi yara miliyan 10.6, ɗan ƙari kaɗan yawan mutanen da suka mutu.
Su ma mazauna Indiya sun rage haihuwa sosai cikin tsawo shekaru – daga kashi 5.7 cikin 100 kan kowace mace ɗaya a 1950 zuwa haihuwar yara biyu.
Saboda haka dai, me hakan ke nufi ga Indiya?
Al’ummar China sun fi na Indiya raguwa
China ta rage ƙaruwar al’ummarta da kusan rabi daga kashi 2 cikin 100 zuwa 1.1 a 1983.
Sai dai masana harkokin al’umma na cewa naa yin hakan ne ta hanyar ƙuntata wa rayuwar mutane – kamar haihuwar yaro ɗaya, da ƙayyade yawan auratayya, da sanya tazara tsakanin yara.
Asalin hoton, Getty Images
Wasu na goyon bayan ƙayyaed yawan iyali
Indiya ta fuskanci ƙaruwar al’umma – kusan kashi 2 cikin 100 duk shekara – tsawon fiye da rabin ƙarni na 20. Daga baya, yawan mace-mace na raguwa, hasashen tsawon rai na ƙaruwa kuma kuɗin da mutane ke samu ya ƙaru.
Indiya ta ƙaddamar da shirin ƙayyade iyali a 1952 kuma sai a 1976 ta ƙaddamar da tsarin al’umma na ƙasa, daidai lokacin da China ke ta ƙoƙarin rage tata al’ummar.
Sai dai tilasta wa mutane da aka dinga yi wajen yi musu tiyatar hana haihuwa yayin shirin gaggawa na rage al’umma a 1975 ya jawo matsala. “Da a ce ba a yi shiri gaggawar ba da al’ummar Indiya ba su ragu cikin sauri ba,” a cewar Farfesa Dyson na kwalejin London School of Economics.
Ƙasashen kudancin Asiya kamar Korea da Malaysiya da Taiwan da Thailand, waɗanda suka ƙaddamar da shirin iyali daga bayan Indiya, sun cimma ƙarancin haihuwa, suka rage yawan mata da yaran da ke mutuwa yayin haihuwa, suka ƙara yawan kuɗin da mutane ke samu kuma suka inganta rayuwar al’umma da wuri kafin Indiya ta yi hakan.
Duk da haka al’ummar Indiya ba za ta yi gagarumar ƙaruwa ba
Indiya ta samu ƙarin mutum fiye da biliyan ɗaya tun bayan samun ‘yancin kai a 1947, kuma ana sa ran al’ummarta za ta ƙaru nan da wasu shekara 40. Amma kuma yawan al’ummarta na raguwa tsawon shekaru yanzu.
Saboda haka ganin Indiya za ta zarta China ba wani abin “damuwa” ba ne, a cewar masana harkokin al’umma.
Asalin hoton, Getty Images
Indiya ta ƙaddamar da shirin ƙayyade al’umma a 1952
Sai dai kuma, zarta China zai iya zama alfanu
Zai iya yiwuwa hakan ya ƙarfafa wa Indiya gwiwar neman kujerar dindindin a Zauren Tsaro na Majalisar Ɗinkin Duniya (MDD), wanda ke da ƙasashe biyar cikinsu har da China.
Indiya na cikin ƙasashen da suka kafa MDD kuma ta haƙiƙance cewa haƙƙinta ne ta samu kujerar ta dindindin. “Ina ganin mutum na da ‘yancin samun abubuwa [kasancewar ƙasar mafi yawan al’umma a duniya],” in ji John Wilmoth, darakta a sashen Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
Abu ne mai muhimmanci yadda al’ummar Indiya ke sauyawa, a cewar KS James na cibiyar International Institute for Population Sciences da ke Indiya.
Asalin hoton, Reuters
Ana sa ran yawan al’ummar Indiya ya kai ƙololuwa tsakanin biliyan 1.6 da 1.8 nan da 2060
Akwai kuma ƙalubala
Akwai buƙatar Indiya ta samar wa matasanta ayyukan yi don samun daidaito. Sai dai kashi 40 cikin 100 na ‘yan Indiya da suka isa shekarun aiki ne ke aikin ko kuma suke son aiki, a cewar cibiyar Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE).
Ƙarin mata za su buƙaci ayyukan yi saboda a yanzu sun rage haihuwa ko zaman kula da yara. Sai dai lamarin ba shi da daɗin ji a nan – kashi 10 cikin 100 ne kacal na matan da suka kai shekarun aiki ke da aikin yi a watan Oktoba, in ji CMIE, idan aka kwatanta da kashi 69 na China.
Indiyawa kusan miliyan 200 ne suka yi ƙaura a cikin ƙasar – tsakanin jihohi da gundumomi – kuma ana sa ran adadin zai ƙaru. Akasarinsu ma’aikata ne da ke barin ƙauyuka zuwa birane don neman aikin yi.
Asalin hoton, Getty Images
Fiye da kashi 10 cikin 100 na Indiyawa sun haura shekara 60
Ƙwararrun kan ce akwai buƙatar Indiya ta daƙile auren wuri, a dinga sanin mace-mace da kuma haife-haife. Wata ƙididdiga ta nuna cewa an fi haihuwar maza fiye da mata, abin da ke bayyana damuwar da ake da ita.
Alamu na nuna ana harar a’ummar Musulmi game da ƙayyade iyali, waɗanda su ne suka fi ƙarancin mutane, amma a ƙashin gaskiya “tazara tsakanin haihuwa tsakanin mabiya addinai ta ragu sama da yadda yake a da,” a cewar wani bincike da cibiyar Pew ta gudanar.
Akwai kuma tsofaffi
Ƙwararru na cewa tsofaffi a Indiya ba sa samun kulawa.
A 1947, shekarun tsaka-tsaki a Indiya 21 ne. ‘Yan kaɗan ne – kashi 5 cikin 100 – ke sama da shekara 60. Yanzu shekarun tsaka-tsaki sun zarta 28 – kuma sama da kashi 10 na Indiyawa sun wuce shekara 60.
Yayin da shekarun mutanen da suka isa aiki ke raguwa, bai wa al’umma mai cike da tsofaffi taimakon da take buƙata zai zama nauyi a kan gwamnati,” in ji Rukmini S, marubucin littafin Whole Numbers and Half Truths: What Data Can and Cannot Tell Us About Modern India.
