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Cikin wata 12 da suka gabata, ƙungiyoyi masu iƙirarin jihadi sun fuskanci koma-baya musamman a ɓangaren shugabanci, duk da haka sun iya ƙoƙarin faɗaɗa harkokinsu a Kudu da Hamadar Sahara, inda ƙungiyoyin ke rige-rigen samun iko.
Yaƙin Ukraine da kuma janyewar sojojin ƙasashen Yamma daga yankin Sahel na Afirka ya bai wa wasu masu iƙirarin jihadi damar faɗaɗa ayyukansu daidai lokacin da hankalin ƙasashen Turai ya karkata.
Komawa kan mulki da ƙungiyar Taliban ta yi a Afghanistan a watan Agusta ya sa ƙungiyoyi masu tsaurin ra’ayi ke hanƙoron yin koyi da su a wurare, ko da kaɗan ne.
A yankin Sahel, ƙungiyoyin Islamic State (IS) da al-Qaeda na hanƙoron faɗaɗa ikonsu, abin da ke jawo rikici tsakaninsu. Matsalolin da suke samu sakamakon rikicin na kawo naƙasu game da yunƙurinsu na ci gaba.
Hakan kan sa ƙungiyoyin su kasa shirya hare-hare da suka saba kaiwa a Turai cikin shekara biyu da suka wuce duk da ƙoƙarin da suke yi wajen yin hakan – abin da IS ɗin ta bayyana a matsayin ƙalubale a wanna shekara.
Idan ana maganar hare-hare masu jihadi a sabuwar shekara ta 2023, ga mahanga:
- Ƙoƙarin kafa iko a Kudu da Hamadar Saharar Afirka
- Burin IS na kuɓutar da mambobinta da iyalansu daga gidajen yari, musamman a Syriya
- Hare-haren IS kan ƙananan wurare a Afghanistan don ta gurgunta abokiyar hamayyarta Taliban
Asarar shugabanni
Ƙungiyoyin al-Qaeda da Islamic State masu iƙirarin jihadi sun yi asarar shugabanni sakamakon hare-haren dakarun ƙawance da na Amurka
A wannan shekarar, manyan ƙungiyoyin masu iƙirarin jihadi biyu – IS da al-Qaeda – sun rasa shugabanninsu uku jimilla, biyu daga ciki a hare-haren Amurka.
An kashe shugabannin IS biyu Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi da Abu al-Hasan al-Hashimi al-Qurashi a Syriya a watan Fabarairu da kuma ƙila a Oktoba.
An kashe daɗaɗɗen shugaban al-Qaeda Ayman al-Zawahiri a harin da Amurka ta kai a birnin Kabul na Afghanistan ranar 31 ga watan Yuli.
An kashe Abu Ibrahim, wanda aka naɗa a watan Oktoban 2019, da wanda ya gaje shi Abu al-Hasan, wanda aka naɗa a Maris ɗin 2022, ba tare da sun yi wata lacca ko ba da saƙo ba a loakcin mulkinsu.
Shugaba Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurashi, wanda aka naɗa a watan Nuwamba, ya shiga sahun shugabannin da ba a taɓa ganin fuskarsu ba.
Duk da cewa IS da magoya bayanta za su yi ƙoƙarin kare irin wannan tsarin, sai dai abu ne a bayyane cewa kashe-kashen shugabanninta ƙalubale ne mai girma a gare su.
Akwai kuma maganar cancanta.
IS na iƙirarin cewa shugabanninta kalifofin Annabi Muhammadu ne, saboda kowanne daga cikinsu na dangantuwa ne da ƙabilar Annabin kamar yadda ake ji a sunansu na “al-Qurashi”, kuma duk shugabanninta ba su da wani naƙasu.
Amma ta yaya za a tabbatar da cewa sun cika irin waɗannan sharuɗɗa tun da ba ta bari a gan shi?
Al-Qaeda ma ba ta ji da daɗi ba
Tun bayan wata huɗu da sanarar kisan shugaban al-Qaeda al-Zawahiri da Amurka ta bayar, ƙungiyar ba ta ce komai ba game da lamarin. Amma a lokacin, dubban magoya baya ne suka yi jana’izarsa bayan sun yarda da labarin kisan nasa.
Jinkirin da al-Qaeda ta yi wajen bayyana sunan magajinsa – abin da mayaƙan ba sa so saboda sukan ce zai iya jawo fitina – ka iya zama alamun da ke nuna cewa babu ƙwararrun da za su gaje shi a kusa.
Mataimakin al-Zawahiri ɗaya da aka sani shi ne Sayf al-Adl, wanda ake zaton yana zaune ne a Iran. Idan da gaske ne, to abu ne da ba zai yiwu ba a ce wani ɗn Shia zai iya jagorantar ƙungiyar ‘yan Sunna kamar IS.
An kashe akasarin manyan jagororin al-Qaeda a shekarun nan, abi da ya sa al-Zawahiri ya zama a kan gaba wajen yaɗa farfagandar ƙungiyar.
Ƙarin dalilan da suka sa al-Qaeda ta jinkirta sanar da mutuwar al-Zawahiri shi ne irin abi da hakan zai jawo wa Taliban, wadda ta ce ba ta san da kisan ba.
Gaba ɗaya dai, gazawar al-Qaeda wajen sanar da sabon shugaba da kuma yadda IS ke ci gaba da naɗa ɓoyayyun shugabanni na nufin ƙarancin jagororin da za su iya shugabantar ayyukansu.
Rige-rige a Afirka
Duk da asarar shugabannin da suka yi a Gabas ta Tsakiya da Afghanistan, IS da al-Qaeda sun samu nasarori a Kudu da Hamadar Saharar Afirka, inda suka son faɗaɗa harkokinsu.
Ƙungiyoyin abokan adawar juna ne a yankin, waɗanda ke neman ganin bayan juna.
Masu iƙirarin jihadi kan nemi amfani da damar da suka samu a wani rikici – kamar juyin mulki a Mali da Burkina Faso – da kuma rikicin ƙabilanci don tabbatar da zamansu.
Suna kuma neman damarmaki a wurin da dakarun ƙasashen Yamma sua janye a yaƙin da suke yi da masu jihadin a yankin Sahel, musamman dakarun Faransa da suka fice daga Mali.
Maye gurbin dakarun Faransa na rundunar Barkhane da mayaƙan haya na Wagner suka yi – na ƙasar Rasha – ka iya ƙarfafa wa ‘ya bindigar gwiwa ganin yadda aka ce mayaƙan na muzguna wa mazauna yankunan.
Kafofin yaɗa labarai sun ruwaito irin yadda masu iƙirarin jihadi ke amfani da kisan da mayaƙan Wagner ke yi a Mali a matsayin farfaganda, musamman al-Qaeda da ke cewa tana kare fararen hula daga Wagner da kuma sojoji.
Duk da fuskantar naƙasu a Syriya, da arewacin Afirka (AQIM), da sashen Indiya (AQIS), da kuma ƙoƙarin tsira da rai da reshenta na Yemen ke yi (AQAP), ƙawar al-Qaeda a Somaliya (al-Shabab) da kuma a Sahel (JNIM) na ci gaba da kawo barazana ganin yadda suke da ƙarfi a tsakanin mazauna yankin.
A watan Satumba al-Qaeda ta yi hasashen cewa al-Shabab, wadda take da iko da wurare a tsakiya da kudancin Somaliya, za ta ƙara ƙarfi nan gaba kaɗan da za su iya kai hari kan birnin Mogadishu tare da kama ƙasar baki ɗaya – daidai irin yadda Taliban ta kama Afghanistan.
A gefe guda kuma, reshen al-Qaeda a Sahel, Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) wadda ke da asali a tsakanin buzaye da Fulanin Mali, na cia gaba da haɓaka ta hanyar amfani da rikicin siyasa a yankin da kuma janyewar dakaru Faransa.
Sai dai a 2022 zuwa yanzu, akasarin manyan hare-hare IS a Sahel ta kai su ne kan abokan adawarta wato JNIM da ƙungiyoyin buzaye, inda ta kai hari ƙalilan kan Wagner, da kuma wasu kaɗan kan sojoji.
Ana sa ran za a ci gaba da ganin faɗan cikin gida tsakanin masu iƙirarin jihadi a 2023 ba tare da alamun ƙaƙƙautawa ba.
Faɗaɗar IS a Afirka
Shekarar 2022 ce mafi hada-hada a tarihin reshen ƙungiyar Islamic State a Najeriya da ake kira West Africa Province branch (ISWAP), inda ta yi iƙirarin kai hare-hare a shekarar kusan sau 500.
Hakan na nufin kusan kashi 25 cikin 100 kenan na ayyukan IS na 2022 a faɗin duniya.ISWAP ta sake faɗaɗa “wuraren da ta ƙwace” cikin wata 12 da suka gabata a Najeriya, bayan ƙungiyar ta kai hare-hare a jihohin da ba ta saba kaiwa ba waɗanda ke wajen area mas gabashin ƙasar – duk da cewa ba ta iya samun sakewa ba a wuraren.
Duk da ƙaruwar ayyukanta a watan Afrilu, saboda hare-haren “ramuwar gayya”, an samu raguwa a hare-haren a watannin ƙarshe na shekarar nan musamman saboda ambaliyar ruwa da ta addabi jihohi.
A taƙaice dai, IS ta dogara ne da ISWAP da sauran ƙawayenta a ƙasashen Afirka wajen yaɗa farfaganda a shirinta na faɗaɗa harkoki don yaƙar koma-bayan da take fuskanta a cibiyarta da ke Syriya da Iraƙi.
An ga alfanun ISWAP a wajen IS a wata Yuni lokacin da shugabannin jihadin suka yi kiran da a yi hijira zuwa “Afirka ta Yamma”, da alama zuwa wuraren da ISWAP ta kama.
Kazalika, wannan shekarar IS ta bai wa ƙawayenta a Mozambique matsayin masu cin gashin kansu, kamar yadda ta yi wa ƙawayenta na Sahel a watan Maris. Hakan ya bunƙasa harkokinsu a yankunan.
Ɓalla gidajen yari
Tun 2019- lokacin da IS ta rasa “daularta” ta Baghouz a gabashin Syriya, IS ta dinga kira ga mayaƙanta da su ci gaba da ɓalla gidajen yari don kuɓutar da abokan aikinsu.
Kusan dukkan saƙonninta tun daga lokacin shi ne ɓalla gidajen yari ne babban abin da ƙungiyar ta saka a gaba.
A 2022, IS ta kai hari kan gidajen yari uku: ɗaya a Syriya da kuma biyu a Afirka.
Yayin da ta kasa cimma burinta a hari kan gidan yarin Ghuwayran da ke ƙunshe da dubban mayaƙanta a arewacin Syriya a watan Janairu, abu ne na farfaganda a gare ta.
Sai dai ta yi nasara a hare-haren da ta kai kan gidajen yari a Najeriya da DR Congo a watan Agusta, inda ta fitar da mambobinta tare da sauran ɗaruruwan tsararru.
